Political Risk Analysis - Kenyatta Victory In Rescheduled Vote Is Most Likely Scenario - NOV 2017


BMI View: Uhuru Kenyatta remains the most likely winner of Kenya ' s rescheduled presidential elections due to take place on October 17, which underpins our expectation of gradual fiscal consolidation in the years ahead. That said, with the potential of a decline in turnout amongst Kenyatta supporters, this analysis also examines the possibility of a victory for challenger Raila Odinga and the impact this would have on the Kenyan economy and the country's fiscal outlook .

The Supreme Court's decision to annul the result of the August presidential election will elevate political uncertainty over the coming months. Although our core view maintains that incumbent President Uhuru Kenyatta will win the rescheduled vote on October 17 (albeit by a diminished margin), there are a number of risks to this view, not least lower-than-expected turnout in the rescheduled vote. In this scenario analysis we assess a number of potential scenarios - our core view and two others - and highlight the likely implications of each.

Scenario One: Kenyatta Re-Election With Slim Majority

Ethnic Loyalties Make Swing Unlikely
Kenya - August 2017 Electoral Breakdown For Kenyatta (Jubilee) & Odinga (Nasa)
Source: BMI, IEBC

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