Economic Analysis - Key Themes For Sub-Saharan Africa In 2018 - FEB 2018

BMI View : An uptick in growth economic growth across Sub-Saharan Africa and the likelihood of fiscal consolidation paint a more positive picture for the region in 2018. That being said, political risk will continue to undermine stability, particularly in West Africa, while several countries face substantial downside risks if they fail to deliver on reforms.

An ongoing cyclical recovery will see economic conditions improve further in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) over the course of 2018, reflected in higher real GDP growth and a deceleration away from accommodative monetary policy. This outlook is further buoyed by our expectations for progress towards fiscal consolidation in several key markets. That being said, we believe political risk will continue to threaten stability, particularly in West Africa where we see the threat of insurgency and social unrest rising.

With that in mind, we have identified the following key themes for SSA in 2018:

  • East Africa's Recovery Sees Growth Accelerate Again
    Sub-Saharan Africa - Real GDP Growth, Regional Breakdown
    f = BMI forecast. Source: UN, National Sources, BMI

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