Economic Analysis - Emerging Markets Key Themes Chartpack - JAN 2018

Economic activity is generally picking up pace across emerging markets (EMs), thanks to a supportive external backdrop. Over recent months, real GDP growth has been boosted by relatively strong demand in the US, eurozone and China, as well as firming commodity prices. As ever, though, the outlook varies a great deal from one country to the next. In this chartpack, we outline the key themes that we expect to play out across EMs over the coming quarters:

  • The trend for disinflation and loose monetary policy is coming to a close amid rising commodity prices, strengthening domestic demand, and in some cases, weakening currencies.

  • Commodity exporters (Brazil, Russia, Saudi Arabia, South Africa) will struggle to recover.

  • Economic Activity Gathering Pace
    Where Major Emerging Markets Are In The Growth Cycle
    This diagram is a stylised representation of where economies are in the economic cycle, based on consultation with BMI analysts. It is about where economies are in their own growth cycle, rather than relative to any particular quantitative metric. The diagram should be read as a continuous line that circles back upon itself. Source: BMI

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