Political Risk Analysis - Constituent Assembly Makes Regime Change More Likely - OCT 2017
Global Macro Monitor August 2017 / Venezuela / Political Risk
Venezuela's widely condemned constituent assembly will likely lead to escalating violence, heightened divisions within the ruling elite and more US sanctions against senior officials. Together...
Economic Analysis - Mid-Year Update: Key Themes For 2017 - AUG 2017
Global Macro Monitor June 2017 / Latin America / Economy
In December 2016, we identified five key themes for Latin America in 2017. Halfway through the year, we maintain a strong conviction that the majority of these themes will play out. In this article...
Economic Analysis - Political Uncertainty Lowers Growth Outlook - JUNE 2017
Global Macro Monitor April 2017 / Latin America / Economy
Latin America's economic growth recovery will be more modest than we previously anticipated. Substantial political uncertainty across much of the region, together with relatively limited commodity...
Economic Analysis - Fiscal Prudence To Catalyse Deficit Narrowing - APR 2017
Global Macro Monitor February 2017 / Latin America / Economy
Prudent fiscal policy will support narrowing fiscal deficits across much of Latin America in 2017, boosting sovereign credentials and improving investor sentiment in an environment of structurally...
Economic Analysis - Latin America: Key Themes For 2017 - FEB 2017
Global Macro Monitor December 2016 / Latin America / Economy
Latin American economies will benefit in 2017 from a move toward orthodox macroeconomic policies, decelerating inflation, rising commodity prices and attractive valuations. Despite the potential...
Economic Analysis - Shift To Pragmatism Will Support Faster Regional Growth - JAN 2017
Global Macro Monitor November 2016 / Latin America / Economy
Changing political landscapes and bottoming commodity prices will see the economic growth recover from its lowest rate since the global recession, gradually converging with emerging markets. Increa...
Economic Analysis - Downgrade Will Exacerbate Weak Economic Outlook - NOV 2015
Global Macro Monitor September 2015 / Brazil / Economy
Standard & Poor's downgrade of Brazil's long-term currency credit rating to junk status will place the real under further selling pressure and boost government and companies' borrowing...