The election of Donald Trump as US president has materially changed the outlook for the global economy in 2017-18. While it is still too early to determine exactly how US policy will shift under Trump, the primary channels we are focusing on from a global macro perspective are firstly, growth and inflation, and secondly, trade.
We continue to see 2016 representing a trough of sorts for global economic activity, with 2.4% real GDP expansion giving way to 2.7% growth in 2017 underpinned by an emerging markets growth acceleration. However, the 2017 figure is a downgrade from our previous 2.8% projection, reflecting our newly below-consensus growth outlook for the US (see Developed States section below).
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