Economic Analysis - Three EM Central Banks To Keep An Eye On - DEC 2017
Global Macro Monitor October 2017 / Global / Economy
BMI View: The central banks of Hungary, Indonesia and Turkey all have a relatively loose stance on monetary policy. In each case, there is a risk that inflation could surge, potentially prompting a...
Economic Analysis - Fed Heading Towards An Uncertain 2018 - NOV 2017
Global Macro Monitor September 2017 / United States / Economy
The US Federal Reserve's policy-setting Federal Open Market Committee is likely to look significantly different in six months' time. With President Donald Trump appointing candidates to several...
Economic Analysis - Emerging Markets Key Themes Chartpack - JULY 2017
Global Macro Monitor May 2017 / Global / Economy
The outlook for emerging markets (EM) is highly mixed, with emerging Asian economies generally set to outperform while commodity exporters underperform. Many EMs are in the early acceleration phase...
Economic Analysis - Emerging Markets Key Themes Q&A - JUNE 2017
Global Macro Monitor April 2017 / Global / Economy
BMI Research recently held a webinar in which we presented our Emerging Markets Key Themes (see 'Emerging Markets Key Themes Chartpack', February 9). Here, we outline our answers to some of the topical questions that came up in the Q&A session.
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Economic Analysis - BMI Vs Consensus: More Bearish On Kenyan Growth - APR 2017
Global Macro Monitor February 2017 / Africa / Economy
We have moved below consensus with regards to our Kenyan growth forecast, and believe the risks of interest-rate capping have not been priced in by other forecasters. Meanwhile, we are far above...
Economic Analysis - Fiscal And MonPol Tracker: End Of Austerity; Precarious Policy Mix In Turkey - MAR 2017
Global Macro Monitor January 2017 / Global / Economy
Key themes in fiscal and monetary policy in the world's largest economies include: the end of austerity in developed markets; fiscal tightening in emerging markets; less dovish monetary policy in developed states as inflation takes hold; and a precarious policy mix in Turkey.
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Economic Analysis - High Private Sector Debt Will Weigh On Growth In Turkey And Russia - JAN 2017
Global Macro Monitor November 2016 / Europe / Economy
In the eurozone periphery, deleveraging remains a major theme among both households and non-financial corporates. In emerging Europe, Turkey and Russia's growth outlooks are most weighed down by...
Global Market View - EM MonPol Dilemmas: Stagflation, FX Depreciation And Deflation - DEC 2015
Global Macro Monitor October 2015 / Global / Economy
EM monetary policy will have a hawkish bent in 2016 owing to inflation risks stemming from extreme currency weakness. Brazil, Nigeria, South Africa and Turkey are stuck in a stagflationary dilemma....
Market Strategy - Market Implications Of Latest Fed Hold - NOV 2015
Global Macro Monitor September 2015 / Global / Economy
The US Fed's decision not to hike interest rates is bearish for US stocks in our view. Rate markets are now pricing in only a 45% chance of a hike by December meaning that the wall of worry which...
Economic Analysis - Rate Hikes Still On The Horizon - NOV 2015
Global Macro Monitor September 2015 / United States / Economy
Although the US Federal Reserve decided to hold its benchmark federal funds rate at its September meeting, we still expect policymakers to begin a hiking cycle before year-end. Uncertainty regardin...