Economic Analysis - Key Themes For Europe In 2018 - FEB 2018
Global Macro Monitor December 2017 / Europe / Economy
Following a stellar year for economic growth across Europe in 2017, broadly speaking we expect to see a moderation in 2018. This will come at a pivotal time for the European Union as it seeks to...
Economic Analysis - Emerging Markets Key Themes Chartpack - JAN 2018
Global Macro Monitor November 2017 / Global / Economy
The trend for disinflation and loose monetary policy in emerging markets is coming to a close amid rising commodity prices, strengthening domestic demand, and in some cases, weakening currencies. M...
Economic Analysis - Few Signs Of Overheating, But Risks Rising - DEC 2017
Global Macro Monitor October 2017 / Europe / Economy
Despite above-trend economic growth, tight labour markets and ongoing loose monetary policy, overheating risks remain broadly contained in emerging Europe. While inflation and wages are rising quickly across the region, generally speaking external imbalances are not emerging, while private and public debt levels remain modest. That said, idiosyncratic risks are apparent in individual markets...
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Economic Analysis - Debt Issuance To Continue Apace - DEC 2017
Global Macro Monitor October 2017 / Middle East / Economy
Lower-for-longer oil prices and slow progress on paring expenditures will keep fiscal deficits wide across the GCC in the years ahead compared with historical levels. Borrowing will continue apace...
Sovereign Debt Analysis - Sovereign Risk: Politics To Prevent Significant Compression Of Credit Spreads - SEPT 2017
Global Macro Monitor July 2017 / Latin America / Economy
Rising political risk in several major Latin American countries in advance of general elections in 2017-2018 will prevent significant further compression in bond yields and credit default swap...
Operational Risk Snapshot - Sovereign Risk: Diplomatic Standoff Will Not Affect Creditworthiness - SEPT 2017
Global Macro Monitor July 2017 / Middle East / Economy
Sovereign creditworthiness within the GCC will remain broadly stable even in the face of rising debt levels and a diplomatic crisis. Despite current efforts to ostracise Qatar, the country will...
Sovereign Debt Analysis - Demographics Biggest Risk To EU Debt Sustainability - SEPT 2017
Global Macro Monitor July 2017 / Europe / Economy
Despite generally low public debt ratios across emerging EU states, demographic decline will pose major long-term challenges to growth and fiscal trajectories. Highly indebted peripheral eurozone...
Economic Analysis - Mid-Year Update: Key Global Themes For 2017 - AUG 2017
Global Macro Monitor June 2017 / Global / Economy
In December 2016, we identified seven key themes for the global economy in 2016 (see 'Key Themes For 2017: Populism, Nationalism And Reflation', December 9, 2016). In this article, we recap these...
Economic Analysis - Mid-Year Update: Europe Key Themes For 2017 - AUG 2017
Global Macro Monitor June 2017 / Europe / Economy
It has been a mixed bag for the 2017 key themes highlighted by BMI's Europe Country Risk team at the start of the year; some have played out as expected, some have not, and some are still too early...
Economic Analysis - Mid-Year Update: Key Themes For 2017 - AUG 2017
Global Macro Monitor June 2017 / Middle East / Economy
In December 2016, we identified five key themes for the Middle East and North Africa in 2017 (see 'Key Themes For The Middle East And North Africa 2017', 7 December 2016). In this article, we...