Economic Analysis - Few Signs Of Overheating, But Risks Rising - DEC 2017
Global Macro Monitor October 2017 / Europe / Economy
Despite above-trend economic growth, tight labour markets and ongoing loose monetary policy, overheating risks remain broadly contained in emerging Europe. While inflation and wages are rising quickly across the region, generally speaking external imbalances are not emerging, while private and public debt levels remain modest. That said, idiosyncratic risks are apparent in individual markets...
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Economic Analysis - Debt Issuance To Continue Apace - DEC 2017
Global Macro Monitor October 2017 / Middle East / Economy
Lower-for-longer oil prices and slow progress on paring expenditures will keep fiscal deficits wide across the GCC in the years ahead compared with historical levels. Borrowing will continue apace...
Sovereign Debt Analysis - Sovereign Risk: Politics To Prevent Significant Compression Of Credit Spreads - SEPT 2017
Global Macro Monitor July 2017 / Latin America / Economy
Rising political risk in several major Latin American countries in advance of general elections in 2017-2018 will prevent significant further compression in bond yields and credit default swap...
Economic Analysis - BMI vs Consensus: Below Consensus On Egypt And Saudi Arabia - JULY 2017
Global Macro Monitor May 2017 / Middle East / Economy
This month in BMI Vs Consensus, we take a look at our below-consensus views on real GDP growth in both Egypt and Saudi.
Economic Analysis - Emerging Markets Key Themes Chartpack - JULY 2017
Global Macro Monitor May 2017 / Global / Economy
The outlook for emerging markets (EM) is highly mixed, with emerging Asian economies generally set to outperform while commodity exporters underperform. Many EMs are in the early acceleration phase...
Economic Analysis - BMI vs Consensus: Above Consensus On The UAE - JUNE 2017
Global Macro Monitor April 2017 / Middle East / Economy
In the UAE, we are 0.2 percentage points (pp) above consensus for 2017, at 2.8% real growth.
Economic Analysis - Emerging Markets Key Themes Q&A - JUNE 2017
Global Macro Monitor April 2017 / Global / Economy
BMI Research recently held a webinar in which we presented our Emerging Markets Key Themes (see 'Emerging Markets Key Themes Chartpack', February 9). Here, we outline our answers to some of the topical questions that came up in the Q&A session.
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Economic Analysis - Demographics: Time Bomb Or Dividend? - MAY 2017
Global Macro Monitor March 2017 / Middle East / Economy
Governments across the Middle East and North Africa will face a massive demographic challenge as a large, rapidly growing young population enter the workforce over the coming decade and beyond. Fai...
Economic Analysis - BMI vs Consensus: Bearish On Egypt As Consensus Moves Closer - APR 2017
Global Macro Monitor February 2017 / Middle East / Economy
We hold a more bearish outlook on the Egyptian economy than consensus and expect 2017 to prove especially challenging.
Economic Analysis - Fiscal Prudence To Catalyse Deficit Narrowing - APR 2017
Global Macro Monitor February 2017 / Latin America / Economy
Prudent fiscal policy will support narrowing fiscal deficits across much of Latin America in 2017, boosting sovereign credentials and improving investor sentiment in an environment of structurally...