Economic Analysis - Three EM Central Banks To Keep An Eye On - DEC 2017
Global Macro Monitor October 2017 / Global / Economy
BMI View: The central banks of Hungary, Indonesia and Turkey all have a relatively loose stance on monetary policy. In each case, there is a risk that inflation could surge, potentially prompting a...
Economic Analysis - Fed Heading Towards An Uncertain 2018 - NOV 2017
Global Macro Monitor September 2017 / United States / Economy
The US Federal Reserve's policy-setting Federal Open Market Committee is likely to look significantly different in six months' time. With President Donald Trump appointing candidates to several...
Economic Analysis - Emerging Markets Key Themes Chartpack - JULY 2017
Global Macro Monitor May 2017 / Global / Economy
The outlook for emerging markets (EM) is highly mixed, with emerging Asian economies generally set to outperform while commodity exporters underperform. Many EMs are in the early acceleration phase...
Economic Analysis - Emerging Markets Key Themes Q&A - JUNE 2017
Global Macro Monitor April 2017 / Global / Economy
BMI Research recently held a webinar in which we presented our Emerging Markets Key Themes (see 'Emerging Markets Key Themes Chartpack', February 9). Here, we outline our answers to some of the topical questions that came up in the Q&A session.
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Economic Analysis - BMI Vs Consensus: Below Consensus On South Africa and Kenya - JUNE 2017
Global Macro Monitor April 2017 / Africa / Economy
This month we discuss the assumptions behind our real GDP growth outlook for Kenya and South Africa. In both cases we are not only below Bloomberg consensus estimates, but also believe the risks...
Economic Analysis - BMI Vs Consensus: No Dovish Moves For South Africa And Nigeria - MAY 2017
Global Macro Monitor March 2017 / Africa / Economy
While consensus has moved to price in monetary easing for South Africa and Nigeria, we maintain our view that monetary policy will remain on hold in these countries in the coming quarters. Meanwhil...
Economic Analysis - BMI Vs Consensus: More Bearish On Kenyan Growth - APR 2017
Global Macro Monitor February 2017 / Africa / Economy
We have moved below consensus with regards to our Kenyan growth forecast, and believe the risks of interest-rate capping have not been priced in by other forecasters. Meanwhile, we are far above...
Economic Analysis - Fiscal And MonPol Tracker: End Of Austerity; Precarious Policy Mix In Turkey - MAR 2017
Global Macro Monitor January 2017 / Global / Economy
Key themes in fiscal and monetary policy in the world's largest economies include: the end of austerity in developed markets; fiscal tightening in emerging markets; less dovish monetary policy in developed states as inflation takes hold; and a precarious policy mix in Turkey.
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Economic Analysis - BMI Vs Consensus: Tight Monetary Policy In Major Markets - FEB 2017
Global Macro Monitor December 2016 / Africa / Economy
We expect that the monetary policy committees of Kenya and Nigeria will follow tighter monetary policies in 2017 than Bloomberg consensus currently anticipates, as the central banks look to protect...
Economic Analysis - Considerably Below Consensus On Saudi Arabia Growth - FEB 2017
Global Macro Monitor December 2016 / Middle East / Economy
We see the Saudi Arabian economy entering a recession in 2017, with real GDP growth averaging -0.2%, while Bloomberg consensus sees the economy expanding by 1.4%.