December 2016 Analysis

Global Macro Outlook - October 2016 - Austerity Has Peaked, But Populism Is Not Yet Policy - DEC 2016

We continue to see 2016 representing a trough of sorts for global economic activity, with 2.4% real GDP expansion giving way to 2.7% growth in 2017 underpinned by an emerging markets growth acceleration. However, the 2017 figure is a downgrade from our previous 2.8% projection, reflecting our newly below-consensus growth outlook for the US (see Developed States section below).