Economic Analysis - Key Themes For 2018: Backlashes And Disputes To Test Solid Macro Backdrop - FEB 2018
Global Macro Monitor December 2017 / Global / Economy
Key global themes that BMI expects to play out in 2018 include a divergence between developed and emerging market economic growth, US-led conflict over trade and potentially with North Korea, and a...
Economic Analysis - What Our Clients Want To Know: NAFTA Q&A - FEB 2018
Global Macro Monitor December 2017 / North America / Economy
On November 15, BMI hosted a webinar on scenarios for the future of the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), a recording of which is available on demand on our online service. Here is a...
Economic Analysis - Protectionism Update: Calm Before The Storm? - JAN 2018
Global Macro Monitor November 2017 / Global / Economy
We expect the trend of rising global protectionism that has been in place since 2013 to resume over the coming quarters after a hiatus in 2017. Developed states will drive this uptrend, particularl...
Economic Analysis - NAFTA Update: Deadlock To Result In Few Treaty Changes - DEC 2017
Global Macro Monitor October 2017 / United States / Economy
An abbreviated timetable, slow progress, and entrenched negotiation positions on key issues such as dispute resolution mechanisms make it increasingly likely that the North American Free Trade...
Economic Analysis - Few Signs Of Overheating, But Risks Rising - DEC 2017
Global Macro Monitor October 2017 / Europe / Economy
Despite above-trend economic growth, tight labour markets and ongoing loose monetary policy, overheating risks remain broadly contained in emerging Europe. While inflation and wages are rising quickly across the region, generally speaking external imbalances are not emerging, while private and public debt levels remain modest. That said, idiosyncratic risks are apparent in individual markets...
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Economic Analysis - Risk Of Credit Event Growing In Wake Of Storms - DEC 2017
Global Macro Monitor October 2017 / Caribbean / Economy
The risk of a credit event in the Caribbean has grown following the devastating impact of hurricanes Irma and Maria in recent weeks. We highlight the US Virgin Islands, several members of the ECCU...
Operational Risk Snapshot - Sovereign Risk: Diplomatic Standoff Will Not Affect Creditworthiness - SEPT 2017
Global Macro Monitor July 2017 / Middle East / Economy
Sovereign creditworthiness within the GCC will remain broadly stable even in the face of rising debt levels and a diplomatic crisis. Despite current efforts to ostracise Qatar, the country will...
Economic Analysis - Mid-Year Update: Key Themes For 2017 - AUG 2017
Global Macro Monitor June 2017 / Middle East / Economy
In December 2016, we identified five key themes for the Middle East and North Africa in 2017 (see 'Key Themes For The Middle East And North Africa 2017', 7 December 2016). In this article, we...
Economic Analysis - Global Shakeup: The New Reality For World Trade - JUNE 2017
Global Macro Monitor April 2017 / Global / Economy
With economic nationalism on the rise globally, highlighted by the election of Donald Trump as US president, the future of the global trade regime is increasingly in doubt. BMI's country risk and...
Economic Analysis - Demographics: Time Bomb Or Dividend? - MAY 2017
Global Macro Monitor March 2017 / Middle East / Economy
Governments across the Middle East and North Africa will face a massive demographic challenge as a large, rapidly growing young population enter the workforce over the coming decade and beyond. Fai...