The European Central Bank's tapering announcement in October points the way to a gradual exit from extraordinary accommodation, but we continue to believe that policy will remain very easy for years. Our core view remains that the ECB will continue expanding its balance sheet into 2019 and keep its benchmark interest rates on hold until 2020, a policy mix that will keep the euro on the back...
Despite above-trend economic growth, tight labour markets and ongoing loose monetary policy, overheating risks remain broadly contained in emerging Europe. While inflation and wages are rising quickly across the region, generally speaking external imbalances are not emerging, while private and public debt levels remain modest. That said, idiosyncratic risks are apparent in individual markets...
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