We continue to see 2016 representing a trough of sorts for global economic activity, with 2.4% real GDP expansion giving way to 2.7% growth in 2017 underpinned by an emerging markets growth acceleration. However, the 2017 figure is a downgrade from our previous 2.8% projection, reflecting our newly below-consensus growth outlook for the US (see Developed States section below).
The six economies of the GCC are set to face tighter fiscal and monetary conditions from 2016 onwards. A downward drag on economic growth is inevitable. That said, the Gulf's large financial buffers, still-solid growth drivers in most countries, and efforts to attract greater private investment will help to mitigate the impact of the oil price slump.
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